Posts from the ‘Monday Morning Interest Rate Updates’ Category

  • All eyes were on Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Poloz last Wednesday when he spoke at the Board of Trade in St. John’s, Newfoundland. Market watchers have been debating whether the Bank would now pause, after reversing the two 0.25% rate cuts that it had made in 2015 in response to the oil-price shock, or continue to raise rates to mitigate against the risk of rising inflationary pressures over the medium term. The answer to that key question has important implications for both fixed and variable mortgage rates.

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  • How Inflation Is Likely to Impact Canadian Mortgage Rates in the Near Future

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for September 25, 2017

    Market watchers are currently engaged in a spirited debate about whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) will continue to raise its policy rate in the near future. In last week’s post I explained why the Loonie’s recent movements against a basket of other currencies make more near-term BoC rate rises unlikely, and in today’s post we’ll take a detailed look at the latest inflation data, which I believe further bolsters that view.

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  • The Bank of Canada (BoC) has now increased its policy rate twice over its last two meetings and there is speculation that it might raise again before the year is out. But the Bank continues to insist that its policy path is data dependent and if that is the case, I think the Loonie’s current momentum makes it doubtful that the BoC will raise again any time soon.

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  • Why Aren’t Average Incomes Rising More Rapidly?

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for August 21, 2017

    Today, our policy makers can’t fully explain why average incomes aren’t rising at a much faster rate. This is the key question for anyone keeping an eye on mortgage rates today because they should move in the same direction as average incomes over time, and at a similar speed. I have read many theories about why average wages aren’t rising as expected and a recent article, Wages vs. Jobs by Gary Shilling, offers particularly valuable insight. Today’s post provides a summary of Shilling’s key points with my comments included as well.

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  • Five Key Questions for Mortgage Borrowers to Focus On

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for August 14, 2017

    Last week was a relatively uneventful one for the factor’s affecting Canadian mortgage rates so today’s post highlights five key questions that borrowers should be focusing on as we look toward the fall real-estate market.

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  • What Do Strong Job Growth and Weak Wage Growth Mean for Our Mortgage Rates?

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for August 8, 2017

    While the latest Canadian headline employment number came in a little lower than expected, the underlying details in the July employment data were encouraging. Bluntly put, if you’re looking for mortgage-rate implications there is nothing in the latest data that would discourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) from increasing its policy rate by another 0.25% before the end of the year, but that said, there also weren’t any new indications that our average labour costs are increasing to a degree that would require the Bank to accelerate its rate-hike timetable further. Here is a summary of the key details from the latest report.

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  • Canadian GDP Surges Higher in May. Will Mortgage Rates Follow?

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for July 31, 2017

    Last Friday we learned that Canadian GDP grew by 0.6% in May, which was three times the consensus estimate of 0.2% for the month. It now looks as if our second-quarter growth rate will come close to matching the 3.7% rate we saw in the first quarter (which led the G7 countries).

    Interestingly, while Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields initially surged higher on the news, they actually closed lower by end of day on Friday. While that may seem counterintuitive, because bond yields should rise if investors expect higher interest rates in future, here are some of the factors that may have contributed to that outcome.

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