Posts from the ‘Monday Morning Interest Rate Updates’ Category
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for November 13, 2017
Today’s post looks at the Canadian mortgage stress-test rate, which has quickly become one of our most important financial benchmarks.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for November 6, 2017
The latest employment data have led to speculation that the Bank of Canada may accelerate its rate-hike timetable. I disagree and today’s post explains why.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for October 30, 2017
The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged last week, as expected. The Bank also sounded more cautious about hiking rates in the near future, and that was somewhat unexpected (at least to market watchers who are not regular readers of this blog).
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for October 23, 2017
Today’s post outlines the mortgage-rule changes that were announced last week and discusses the implications for Canadian borrowers, mortgage rates and house prices.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for October 16, 2017
In today’s post I explain why our policy maker’s efforts to curb our household borrowing rates will also slow overall consumer spending, and most importantly for Canadian mortgage borrowers, why that will keep a lid on both our fixed and variable mortgage rates going forward.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for October 10, 2017
We received the latest Canadian employment report, for September, last Friday and while it showed that our rate of job creation slowed, it also confirmed that average wages increased by 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. In today’s post I offer my take on how this latest data might impact both our fixed and variable mortgage rates.
Good News for Variable-Rate Mortgage Borrowers: Governor Poloz Shifts the Bank of Canada Into Neutral … For Now
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for October 2, 2017
All eyes were on Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Poloz last Wednesday when he spoke at the Board of Trade in St. John’s, Newfoundland. Market watchers have been debating whether the Bank would now pause, after reversing the two 0.25% rate cuts that it had made in 2015 in response to the oil-price shock, or continue to raise rates to mitigate against the risk of rising inflationary pressures over the medium term. The answer to that key question has important implications for both fixed and variable mortgage rates.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for September 25, 2017
Market watchers are currently engaged in a spirited debate about whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) will continue to raise its policy rate in the near future. In last week’s post I explained why the Loonie’s recent movements against a basket of other currencies make more near-term BoC rate rises unlikely, and in today’s post we’ll take a detailed look at the latest inflation data, which I believe further bolsters that view.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for September 18, 2017
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has now increased its policy rate twice over its last two meetings and there is speculation that it might raise again before the year is out. But the Bank continues to insist that its policy path is data dependent and if that is the case, I think the Loonie’s current momentum makes it doubtful that the BoC will raise again any time soon.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for September 11, 2017
In today’s post we’ll briefly look at the impact that this latest rate increase is likely to have on borrowers and house prices and then I’ll offer my take on the likelihood that the BoC will raise again before the end of the year.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for August 28, 2017
Today’s post explains which type of lender is typically offering the best value to the three different segments of mortgage borrowers that were created by last fall’s mortgage rule changes.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for August 21, 2017
Today, our policy makers can’t fully explain why average incomes aren’t rising at a much faster rate. This is the key question for anyone keeping an eye on mortgage rates today because they should move in the same direction as average incomes over time, and at a similar speed. I have read many theories about why average wages aren’t rising as expected and a recent article, Wages vs. Jobs by Gary Shilling, offers particularly valuable insight. Today’s post provides a summary of Shilling’s key points with my comments included as well.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for August 14, 2017
Last week was a relatively uneventful one for the factor’s affecting Canadian mortgage rates so today’s post highlights five key questions that borrowers should be focusing on as we look toward the fall real-estate market.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for August 8, 2017
While the latest Canadian headline employment number came in a little lower than expected, the underlying details in the July employment data were encouraging. Bluntly put, if you’re looking for mortgage-rate implications there is nothing in the latest data that would discourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) from increasing its policy rate by another 0.25% before the end of the year, but that said, there also weren’t any new indications that our average labour costs are increasing to a degree that would require the Bank to accelerate its rate-hike timetable further. Here is a summary of the key details from the latest report.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for July 31, 2017
Last Friday we learned that Canadian GDP grew by 0.6% in May, which was three times the consensus estimate of 0.2% for the month. It now looks as if our second-quarter growth rate will come close to matching the 3.7% rate we saw in the first quarter (which led the G7 countries).
Interestingly, while Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields initially surged higher on the news, they actually closed lower by end of day on Friday. While that may seem counterintuitive, because bond yields should rise if investors expect higher interest rates in future, here are some of the factors that may have contributed to that outcome.