Posts from the ‘Monday Morning Interest Rate Updates’ Category
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for March 12, 2018
The only real question leading up to this meeting centred on the tone of the Bank’s accompanying statement. Would the BoC convey a hawkish bias out of concern for rising inflationary pressures and tightening labour market conditions, or would it sound more cautious in deference to increased trade uncertainty and the lagging effects of the three rate hikes it had recently made?
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for March 5, 2018
Last Thursday, seemingly out of the blue, President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum, adding that these new taxes may be applied as early as this week. The U.S. President has a surprising amount of latitude on trade policy. In this […]
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for February 26, 2018
The consensus read of the latest inflation data, which showed only a modest uptick of one of the Bank of Canada’s key sub-measures of inflation (more on that in the post), was that this slight change is not likely to alter the Bank’s plan to raise its overnight rate at some point this summer. I continue to disagree with this view and believe that the Bank will once again prove more cautious than our mainstream economists are forecasting.
Why the Bank of Canada Will Be Cautious in 2018 (And It Isn’t Just Because of the January Employment Data)
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for February 12, 2018
After thirteen straight months of impressive gains, Canada’s labour market hit the brakes hard last month. Our economy lost 88,000 jobs in January and that marked our biggest one-month drop in nine years. Investors reacted quickly, driving Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields lower on Friday and decreasing the odds of a Bank of Canada […]
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for February 5, 2018
Last Friday U.S. bond yields surged higher in reaction to stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data. Will that push up Canadian fixed mortgage rates?
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for January 29, 2018
Today’s post highlights an under-the-radar development that has the potential to have a significant impact on Canadian mortgage rates in 2018.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for January 22, 2018
Canadian variable-rate borrowers are certainly having their courage tested of late, especially with the mainstream media making ominous predictions about more rate increases on the horizon. But will these warnings prove prescient?
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for January 15, 2018
In today’s post I offer my forecast for five-year variable rates in 2018. At the end of the post I also offer my take on whether five-year fixed or variable rates are likely to offer the lowest cost over the next five years and, more importantly, my take on which is the better option for most borrowers in the current environment.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for January 8, 2018
The key question for mortgage borrowers and, more broadly, for real-estate markets across the country (since the majority of Canadians opt for five-year fixed-rate mortgages) is whether rates will rise this year, and if so, by how much.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for December 18, 2017
In today’s post, in the spirit of another new year’s tradition, I’m going to poke my neck out further than usual and offer predictions on how I think the impacts from the coming mortgage rule changes will materialize in the new year. (Note: The only certainty with the following predictions is that when you combine them with $1.50 you can buy one cup of hot coffee.)
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for December 11, 2017
The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged last week, as expected. In its accompanying statement the Bank explained how developments both at home and abroad have influenced its overall economic view and today’s post will unpack this brief but detailed assessment by highlighting five key observations for anyone keeping an eye on […]
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for December 4, 2017
Market watchers missed one very important detail in the latest employment data when they rushed to price in the next Bank of Canada rate hike. Today’s post explains.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for November 27, 2017
On January 1, 2018, our regulators will implement a sixth round of mortgage rule changes as part of their ongoing attempts to slow our economy’s rate of mortgage debt accumulation. While I agree in principle with their instincts and with their earlier changes, I take issue with their most recent methodology. For example, in a […]
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for November 20, 2017
Today’s post explains how Canadian Mortgage Rates are benefiting from our current “inflationary sweet spot”.
Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for November 13, 2017
Today’s post looks at the Canadian mortgage stress-test rate, which has quickly become one of our most important financial benchmarks.