Posts from the ‘Monday Morning Interest Rate Updates’ Category

  • Off This Week … Back Next Monday

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for May 7, 2018

    There is no new post this week but I will be back up and running next Monday as usual. In the meantime, here are links to my five most popular posts thus far in 2018: Canadian Mortgage Rate Forecast for 2018 – Part 1 (Five-Year Fixed Rates) Canadian Mortgage Rate Forecast for 2018 – Part […]

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  • The Bank of Canada Offers Hope (For Later), Caution (For Now)

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for April 23, 2018

    The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its overnight rate unchanged last week, as most market watchers expected. The Bank also released its latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which provides us with the Bank’s assessment of the current economic conditions at home and abroad and includes forecasts for key economic data. The overall tone of […]

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  • Five Key Questions For This Week’s Bank of Canada Meeting

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for April 16, 2018

    The Bank of Canada (BoC) meets this Wednesday, and while most market watchers aren’t expecting the Bank to raise its overnight rate at this meeting there is still the possibility that its accompanying commentary could push Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields higher, along with the fixed mortgage rates that are priced on them. The […]

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  • As Canadian GDP Growth Slows, Will U.S. Economic Momentum Save the Day?

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for April 2, 2018

    Last week, Statistics Canada confirmed that our economic momentum slowed sharply in January as our GDP fell by 0.1% over the month. The drop was primarily attributed to sharp decreases in oil production and real-estate activity. While our January result came in below the consensus forecast of 0.1% increase, some loss in momentum was largely […]

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  • What the Bank of Canada’s Caution Means for Canadian Mortgage Rates

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for March 12, 2018

    The only real question leading up to this meeting centred on the tone of the Bank’s accompanying statement. Would the BoC convey a hawkish bias out of concern for rising inflationary pressures and tightening labour market conditions, or would it sound more cautious in deference to increased trade uncertainty and the lagging effects of the three rate hikes it had recently made?

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  • How Trump’s Tariffs Are Likely to Affect Canadian Mortgage Rates

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for March 5, 2018

    Last Thursday, seemingly out of the blue, President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum, adding that these new taxes may be applied as early as this week. The U.S. President has a surprising amount of latitude on trade policy. In this […]

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  • Our Latest Inflation Data Give the Bank of Canada More Time to Wait

    Monday Morning Interest Rate Update for February 26, 2018

    The consensus read of the latest inflation data, which showed only a modest uptick of one of the Bank of Canada’s key sub-measures of inflation (more on that in the post), was that this slight change is not likely to alter the Bank’s plan to raise its overnight rate at some point this summer. I continue to disagree with this view and believe that the Bank will once again prove more cautious than our mainstream economists are forecasting.

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