Last week TD Bank lowered its posted five-year rate to 4.99%. TD’s move by itself isn’t enough to drop the stress-test rate. Other Big Six banks will need to follow. That’s where this gets interesting.
Contagion fears are stoking demand for safe-haven assets, such as sovereign bonds, putting downward pressure on their yields, and by association, the fixed mortgage rates that are priced on them.
The Bank of Canada offered a decidedly more cautious outlook last week. Government of Canada bond yields fell in response and five-year fixed rates started dropping shortly thereafter.
Last week Prime Minister Trudeau asked Finance Minister Morneau to review the mortgage stress test. Here are my thoughts on two tweaks he should recommend.
Last week's GDP data came in lower than the Bank of Canada expected but I don't think that will cause the Bank to cut its policy rate when it meets this week.
Last week we learned that overall inflation rose by 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in October.
The consensus believes that at-target inflation will prevent the Bank of Canada from cutting its policy rate in the near future, but I don’t think it should.