The only real question leading up to this meeting centred on the tone of the Bank’s accompanying statement. Would the BoC convey a hawkish bias out of concern for rising inflationary pressures and tightening labour market conditions, or would it sound more cautious in deference to increased trade uncertainty and the lagging effects of the three rate hikes it had recently made?

Last Thursday, seemingly out of the blue, President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum, adding that these new taxes may be applied as early as this week. The U.S. President has a surprising amount of latitude on trade policy. In this case, Trump is arguing that the U.S. steel and aluminum industries are strategically important to the U.S. military. In theory, if foreign competition is allowed to starve out domestic production by dumping cheap steel and aluminum into U.S. markets, the U.S. industrial base may be degraded to the point where it cannot adequately supply the U.S. military in times of war. Interestingly, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) quickly responded to Trump’s announcement […]

The consensus read of the latest inflation data, which showed only a modest uptick of one of the Bank of Canada’s key sub-measures of inflation (more on that in the post), was that this slight change is not likely to alter the Bank’s plan to raise its overnight rate at some point this summer. I continue to disagree with this view and believe that the Bank will once again prove more cautious than our mainstream economists are forecasting.

After thirteen straight months of impressive gains, Canada’s labour market hit the brakes hard last month. Our economy lost 88,000 jobs in January and that marked our biggest one-month drop in nine years. Investors reacted quickly, driving Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields lower on Friday and decreasing the odds of a Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike in April from 58% to 50% (which is still way too high in my opinion, but more about that later). The BoC has said that it will be heavily data dependent when determining its future monetary-policy path. If the latest employment report is an early signal that our surging employment momentum is now abating, this means that the Bank will delay additional rate rises. As always, however, the market shoots […]

Last Friday U.S. bond yields surged higher in reaction to stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data. Will that push up Canadian fixed mortgage rates?

Today's post highlights an under-the-radar development that has the potential to have a significant impact on Canadian mortgage rates in 2018.

Canadian variable-rate borrowers are certainly having their courage tested of late, especially with the mainstream media making ominous predictions about more rate increases on the horizon. But will these warnings prove prescient?

In today’s post I offer my forecast for five-year variable rates in 2018. At the end of the post I also offer my take on whether five-year fixed or variable rates are likely to offer the lowest cost over the next five years and, more importantly, my take on which is the better option for most borrowers in the current environment.